So, now that it is down to the final four and Ron has no chance of winning, I wanted to take a closer look at the final three contestants.
Mike - 5'11", 18 years old. Original Weight - 388 lbs. Wow...he is only 5'11". He has lost 164 lbs so far and weighs 224. At 5'11" he could easily get to 180 lbs. Lets say he ends at 180 flat. That is a loss of 53.608%.
Tara - 5'9", 23 years old. Original Weight - 294 lbs. She is pretty tall. She has lost 125 lbs. She weighs 169. To keep up with Mike, she needs to lose 33 more lbs. That would be a loss of 53.74%. That also puts her at 136 lbs. I dont think she can get that skinny. That is really light but who knows.
Helen - 5'6", 47 years old. Original Weight - 257 lbs. She has lost 103 lbs. She weighs 154 lbs. She needs to end at 118 lbs to have a chance I think at winning this. That would put her at 54.08% loss. Can she do this? I think no way.
Now to put it a different way, Mike has to lose 44 more lbs to get to 180 or 19.6% of his weight. Tara has to lose 19.5% of her weight and Helen has to lose 23.4% of her weight. Helen is basically out too.
I personally think Tara is out too. Cutting down to belwo 140 will be much tougher I think than a 5'11" guy cuting to 180.
That is why they play the game!
6 comments:
Good stuff.
A couple of questions that aren't really quantifiable:
1) Who is the most motivated? I would go with Tara most, Helen least. I think Helen will plateau a bit. Mike is pretty driven, but I think he is going to feel obligated to focus too much attention on Max (fatty brother).
2) Tara has the highest percentage of weight loss on campus. It would be interesting to see graphs of her weight loss trend vs Mike's (see if one is a late bloomer).
3) Being on campus might have a big effect. Guys are generally very competitive, so Mike being on campus could be a significant driver for him. Tara has generally operated under a lot of stress from everyone being after her (or her being paranoid about everyone being after her). As you mentioned before, stress can kill weight loss. We'll see if Tara gets stress free when home.
You turned my Tuesday night smut watching into a math problem....please don't ever do that again. I hate math and love smut.
I agree. Mike definitely has an advantage. But all it takes is Tara to go totally anorexic or for Mike to slip up and have a binging frenzy at Old Country Buffet. We shall see!
A 5'9" gal at 136 is really skinny, however, didn't Tara used to be a model or something? They are scary skinny. And since she is the most motivated, I think she has a pretty good chance.
Agreed that Mike has a definite advantage over Helen.
I only watched the last 5 minutes this week. Are we back to liking Mike again?
I think these other guys are right, that Tara has a better chance than others in her position. She will have to somehow start dropping the muscle she gained (by mostly running, maybe?). However, she knows going in that she is going to have to do something like that to beat Mike, so I think she has a chance.
@Sue: Tara used to be a plus-size model.
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